The short and long-term impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy: a simulation approach

Mahia R., de Arce R., KOÇ A. A., Boluk G.

TURKISH STUDIES, cilt.21, sa.5, ss.661-683, 2020 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 21 Sayı: 5
  • Basım Tarihi: 2020
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/14683849.2019.1691920
  • Dergi Adı: TURKISH STUDIES
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Historical Abstracts, Index Islamicus, MLA - Modern Language Association Database, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index, Sociological abstracts, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.661-683
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Turkish economy, Syrian refugees, migration, economic impact of migration, SOUTH-SOUTH MIGRATION, IMMIGRANT LABOR, COUNTRIES, WORKERS, GDP
  • Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This article presents the results of a simulation on the short-, medium- and long-term aggregated economic contribution of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy. The simulation is focused on two sources of impact: refugees' access to the Turkish labor market and the investment flow generated by Syrians inside the country. An input-output approach is used to compute economic effects considering the intersectoral linkages of the Turkish economy, thereby expanding the focus of a classic impact study. Our results show a positive economic impact of Syrian refugees of around 2 percent of GDP in the short term and 4 percent in the long term. Syrian immigration in Turkey is becoming a factor of economic dynamism that not only benefits the Syrian community itself but also the Turkish host communities. The direct and indirect contribution in terms of production and demand is very relevant and, properly channeled and promoted, can become a relative advantage for the country and not a burden of care.